A Turning Tide: Why the Property Market in New Zealand Is Becoming More Buyer-Friendly
The New Zealand housing market is showing early signs of a shift—one that’s creating real opportunities for first-home buyers and long-term investors alike. Driven by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) recent monetary policy changes and evolving investor behaviour, conditions are ripening for those looking to enter or re-enter the market – the positive signals emerging from the property landscape, supported by key insights from CoreLogic, interest.co.nz, and commentary by economist Tony Alexander.
RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate Cuts: Fuel for a Market Rebound
Lower mortgage rates are expanding affordability and unlocking purchasing power for first-home buyers and families who were previously priced out.
A Buyer’s Market: The Rise of First-Home Buyers
Economist Tony Alexander describes the current phase as a “dream scenario” for young buyers. Why? Investors—facing tighter tax rules and lower capital gains expectations—are listing properties at a growing rate.
According to a recent OneRoof and Tony Alexander survey:
- 24% of agents report more investor listings (the highest in five years)
- 29% are seeing an increase in first-home buyer activity
This increased listing activity is boosting housing stock and reducing buyer competition. It’s giving more leverage to those entering the market, especially in suburban areas where prices have softened.
The investor retreat is clearing space for young Kiwis to step into home ownership with greater choice and bargaining power.
CoreLogic Forecasts: Modest Growth Ahead, but Solid Recovery Expected
While the housing market is still stabilising from its correction, CoreLogic’s housing value index suggests that the worst may be over. In its recent forecasts, CoreLogic projects:
- 3.8% house price growth in 2025
- 6% in 2026
- 5.1% in 2027
For buyers able to enter now, there’s potential for future capital gains as the market regains momentum over the medium term.”
Supply and Sentiment: Conditions Aligning for a Soft Landing
Unlike previous booms driven by speculative heat, today’s conditions are more balanced:
- Housing listings remain high, ensuring a variety of options and reducing pressure on bidding.
- Population growth, especially through immigration, continues to support demand.
- Construction activity, while still active, is slowing down due to financing constraints, reducing the risk of future oversupply.
Combined, these factors suggest that the market is heading toward a soft landing rather than a hard crash, with the potential for recovery rooted in fundamentals rather than speculation.
Why It’s a Good Time to Enter the Market
| Positive Factor | Benefit for Buyers |
|---|---|
| OCR cuts and lower mortgage rates | Increased affordability and borrowing capacity |
| High investor listings | More inventory and less buyer competition |
| Stabilising house values | Safer entry point and better negotiating position |
| CoreLogic forecasts | Long-term price growth potential |
| Balanced supply and demand | Lower risk of sharp price declines |
Final Thoughts: Opportunity Amid Transition
While the broader economic picture still carries uncertainty, one thing is becoming clear: the balance of power in New Zealand’s property market is shifting toward buyers. Thanks to the RBNZ’s monetary easing, elevated listings, and reduced investor activity, this moment offers a rare combination of affordability and opportunity.
For first-home buyers, particularly, this could be the golden window to step onto the property ladder before market momentum returns. As history has shown, those who move strategically in a recovering market are often the ones who benefit the most in the long run.
